An Analysis of Simulation and Prediction of Urban Morphology Based on Gray Logistic Cellular Automaton Model

Guest Editor Yuantao Teng (Jilin Normal University, Shiping City, China)

Urbanization is accelerating across the globe. In order to achieve healthy urban development, many studies have been devoted to the expansion and simulation of urban morphology. This study makes improvements on the logistic cellular automaton(logistic-CA) model, so as to accurately simulate the evolution of urban morphology in space and quantity, and to explore the rules and characteristics of the evolution of urban morphology under the historical development trend of inertia. By embedding the method of unequal time interval gray combination forecasting into logistic-CA, the modified model achieves the goal of accurately simulating and forecasting urban shape in a given year, which capability has been proven by empirical tests in two forecast years. The predicted result of 2011-2020 is: the spatial layout of Binhai area will gradually develop into a crisscross shape, formed by the main Haihe River development axis and the coastal development belt; the evolution of urban morphology will mainly happen in five clusters: Tanggu City Area, Tanggu Port, Hangu City Area, Binhai International Airport, Dagang City Area and Dagang Oilfield. At the early stage, urban morphology will expand around the five above-mentioned clusters (the expansion of old city areas and ports is especially fast); at the later stage, the expansion will connect the coastal urban development belt and the Haihe River urban development axis to form a crisscross.

Journal: International Journal of Simulation: Systems, Science & Technology, IJSSST V17

Published: Jan 7, 2016

DOI: 10.5013/IJSSST.a.17.01.30